本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Immigrants' loyalty to Liberals waning
Tories, NDP make gains with voters who have historically supported Grits
MARINA JIMÉNEZ
September 18, 2008
Immigrants, once a bedrock of support for the Liberals, no longer automatically vote for the party, loosening an allegiance that dates back to the Trudeau era.
Fifty-eight per cent of visible-minority newcomers supported the Liberals in the 2006 federal election, down from 71 per cent in 2000, according to an analysis of the Canadian Election Study, a survey of voting behaviour undertaken by academics.
Pollsters, researchers and politicians predict the dramatic 13-point drop in Liberal vote share among visible minorities will continue on Oct. 14.
"We are seeing the breakdown of a long-standing historical inclination to vote Liberal," said Stuart Soroka, a McGill University political scientist and director of the Canadian Opinion Research Archive. "There is definitely a shift under way."
Print Edition - Section Front
Section A Front Enlarge Image
The Globe and Mail
Although ethnic origin alone doesn't drive voting behaviour, abandoning the party you first supported may be part of a political maturation process.
"Your identity is diffused over time, and Liberals may suffer attrition as a result," said Stephen Clarkson, a University of Toronto political economist. "As well, the Liberals have not articulated a new vision to recapture ethnic votes."
New Canadians are not automatically gravitating to the Conservatives; the New Democratic Party appears to have gained at least as much as the Tories. However, more Conservative votes from visible minorities could be the key to capturing several heavily ethnic ridings narrowly won by the Liberals in 2006, such as Mississauga-Erindale and Mississauga South in the Greater Toronto Area, and Richmond and Burnaby in B.C.'s Lower Mainland.
For years, the Liberals have counted on their "brand" as a pro-immigrant party. Newcomers who arrived under the Liberal governments of the 1960s, 70s and 80s remained loyal, as the party reaped the benefit of being the point of first contact. It was the Liberals who introduced multiculturalism and the point system in 1967, selecting immigrants based on skills and education instead of ethnic background.
The old Progressive Conservative Party - and the Reform Party - were seen to have an anti-immigrant bias. The image wasn't entirely fair, as prime minister Brian Mulroney increased the annual intake of immigrants to 190,000 in 1989, from a low of 88,000 under the final year of prime minister Pierre Trudeau's government in 1984.
"For years immigrants voted in a bloc," said Linda Gerber, a sociologist at the University of Guelph who has researched the visible-minority vote. "But in 2006, the Liberals didn't do as well in visible-minority ridings, though they still won by a large margin."
It wasn't until 2007, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed MP Jason Kenney as Secretary of State for Multiculturalism, that the Conservatives launched their own version of "building guan xi" (relationships) with immigrant communities.
"We learned from our friends in the Liberal Party," said Mr. Kenney, who has attended so many dim sum luncheons and ethnic banquets he has expanded in girth and earned the moniker "Mr. Curry in a Hurry."
"When I go in front of audiences and look out at hundreds of people who I know almost all traditionally voted Liberal, it really energizes me to try to connect their votes to their values," he said in an interview.
His speeches focus on the party's law-and-order agenda and family-values outlook, efforts to accept foreign credentials of professionals such as doctors, and its modernizing of the immigration system. He also likes to note that Canada's first Japanese, Muslim and black MPs were all Conservatives.
The party has targeted Koreans, Chinese, Jews, South Asians, Eastern Europeans, Filipinos and Vietnamese - especially in those ridings it thinks it can win.
The Tories are also fielding 50 immigrant candidates of both visible-minority and European background. The Liberals have three Chinese Canadians and eight South Asian Canadians running, but could not provide further details on the race or ethnicity of other candidates.
The New Democrats also hope to benefit from the disenchantment of former Liberal immigrants. "In the old days, [immigrants] would say Trudeau brought us here," NDP Leader Jack Layton told The Globe and Mail's editorial board yesterday. "Now they're saying we were brought here under false pretenses, we got points for our professional degrees, but when we arrived the door was slammed in our face."
Salma Ataullahjan, a Pakistani immigrant, used to be a diehard Liberal but is now running in Mississauga-Brampton South on the Conservative ticket. The real-estate agent, in her mid-50s, said she became disillusioned by the Liberals' internal leadership squabbles and lack of fresh ideas. "The Liberal Party stopped respecting our intelligence and just came to us when they needed us," she said. "They used us as fodder to feed the electoral machinery and as backfill for photographs. They took our vote for granted."
Ms. Ataullahjan, who hails from a prominent Pashtun political family, has been wooed as much by specific Tory policies as by Mr. Kenney's grassroots charm offensive. "He has put the time in and listened to these communities' concerns. And Harper has put Canada back on the world map [with the Afghan mission]."
In a speech in Richmond, B.C., last weekend, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion reached out to the party's old base, introducing an $800-million plan to overhaul the immigration system that includes repealing Conservative amendments that give discretionary power to the minister to screen applicants. He also pledged to invest in language training and foreign-credential recognition, reduce the backlog by upgrading the selection system, and create a renewable, multi-entry visa and a "Canada Express Pass" for business visitors.
His message resonated among some voters. But Chinese immigrants from Hong Kong don't necessarily favour Mr. Dion's environmental initiatives, and remain impressed by Mr. Harper's apology and redress to the Chinese for the $500 head tax, said Tung Chan, a former Vancouver city councillor and a Conservative.
It is too soon to know whether this will translate into Conservative votes: Visible-minority Canadians are now as unpredictable as everyone else.
SUPPORT BY MINORITIES
In recent elections, the ethnic vote that used to be mainly Liberal has been shifting to the Tories and New Democrats.
LIBERAL VOTE SHARE
2000 2004 2006
Visible majority 32% 30% 25%
Visible minority 71% 54% 58%
Based on a rolling cross-section survey with 3,200 to 4,000 eligible voters.
SOURCE: THE CANADIAN ELECTION STUDY更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Tories, NDP make gains with voters who have historically supported Grits
MARINA JIMÉNEZ
September 18, 2008
Immigrants, once a bedrock of support for the Liberals, no longer automatically vote for the party, loosening an allegiance that dates back to the Trudeau era.
Fifty-eight per cent of visible-minority newcomers supported the Liberals in the 2006 federal election, down from 71 per cent in 2000, according to an analysis of the Canadian Election Study, a survey of voting behaviour undertaken by academics.
Pollsters, researchers and politicians predict the dramatic 13-point drop in Liberal vote share among visible minorities will continue on Oct. 14.
"We are seeing the breakdown of a long-standing historical inclination to vote Liberal," said Stuart Soroka, a McGill University political scientist and director of the Canadian Opinion Research Archive. "There is definitely a shift under way."
Print Edition - Section Front
Section A Front Enlarge Image
The Globe and Mail
Although ethnic origin alone doesn't drive voting behaviour, abandoning the party you first supported may be part of a political maturation process.
"Your identity is diffused over time, and Liberals may suffer attrition as a result," said Stephen Clarkson, a University of Toronto political economist. "As well, the Liberals have not articulated a new vision to recapture ethnic votes."
New Canadians are not automatically gravitating to the Conservatives; the New Democratic Party appears to have gained at least as much as the Tories. However, more Conservative votes from visible minorities could be the key to capturing several heavily ethnic ridings narrowly won by the Liberals in 2006, such as Mississauga-Erindale and Mississauga South in the Greater Toronto Area, and Richmond and Burnaby in B.C.'s Lower Mainland.
For years, the Liberals have counted on their "brand" as a pro-immigrant party. Newcomers who arrived under the Liberal governments of the 1960s, 70s and 80s remained loyal, as the party reaped the benefit of being the point of first contact. It was the Liberals who introduced multiculturalism and the point system in 1967, selecting immigrants based on skills and education instead of ethnic background.
The old Progressive Conservative Party - and the Reform Party - were seen to have an anti-immigrant bias. The image wasn't entirely fair, as prime minister Brian Mulroney increased the annual intake of immigrants to 190,000 in 1989, from a low of 88,000 under the final year of prime minister Pierre Trudeau's government in 1984.
"For years immigrants voted in a bloc," said Linda Gerber, a sociologist at the University of Guelph who has researched the visible-minority vote. "But in 2006, the Liberals didn't do as well in visible-minority ridings, though they still won by a large margin."
It wasn't until 2007, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed MP Jason Kenney as Secretary of State for Multiculturalism, that the Conservatives launched their own version of "building guan xi" (relationships) with immigrant communities.
"We learned from our friends in the Liberal Party," said Mr. Kenney, who has attended so many dim sum luncheons and ethnic banquets he has expanded in girth and earned the moniker "Mr. Curry in a Hurry."
"When I go in front of audiences and look out at hundreds of people who I know almost all traditionally voted Liberal, it really energizes me to try to connect their votes to their values," he said in an interview.
His speeches focus on the party's law-and-order agenda and family-values outlook, efforts to accept foreign credentials of professionals such as doctors, and its modernizing of the immigration system. He also likes to note that Canada's first Japanese, Muslim and black MPs were all Conservatives.
The party has targeted Koreans, Chinese, Jews, South Asians, Eastern Europeans, Filipinos and Vietnamese - especially in those ridings it thinks it can win.
The Tories are also fielding 50 immigrant candidates of both visible-minority and European background. The Liberals have three Chinese Canadians and eight South Asian Canadians running, but could not provide further details on the race or ethnicity of other candidates.
The New Democrats also hope to benefit from the disenchantment of former Liberal immigrants. "In the old days, [immigrants] would say Trudeau brought us here," NDP Leader Jack Layton told The Globe and Mail's editorial board yesterday. "Now they're saying we were brought here under false pretenses, we got points for our professional degrees, but when we arrived the door was slammed in our face."
Salma Ataullahjan, a Pakistani immigrant, used to be a diehard Liberal but is now running in Mississauga-Brampton South on the Conservative ticket. The real-estate agent, in her mid-50s, said she became disillusioned by the Liberals' internal leadership squabbles and lack of fresh ideas. "The Liberal Party stopped respecting our intelligence and just came to us when they needed us," she said. "They used us as fodder to feed the electoral machinery and as backfill for photographs. They took our vote for granted."
Ms. Ataullahjan, who hails from a prominent Pashtun political family, has been wooed as much by specific Tory policies as by Mr. Kenney's grassroots charm offensive. "He has put the time in and listened to these communities' concerns. And Harper has put Canada back on the world map [with the Afghan mission]."
In a speech in Richmond, B.C., last weekend, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion reached out to the party's old base, introducing an $800-million plan to overhaul the immigration system that includes repealing Conservative amendments that give discretionary power to the minister to screen applicants. He also pledged to invest in language training and foreign-credential recognition, reduce the backlog by upgrading the selection system, and create a renewable, multi-entry visa and a "Canada Express Pass" for business visitors.
His message resonated among some voters. But Chinese immigrants from Hong Kong don't necessarily favour Mr. Dion's environmental initiatives, and remain impressed by Mr. Harper's apology and redress to the Chinese for the $500 head tax, said Tung Chan, a former Vancouver city councillor and a Conservative.
It is too soon to know whether this will translate into Conservative votes: Visible-minority Canadians are now as unpredictable as everyone else.
SUPPORT BY MINORITIES
In recent elections, the ethnic vote that used to be mainly Liberal has been shifting to the Tories and New Democrats.
LIBERAL VOTE SHARE
2000 2004 2006
Visible majority 32% 30% 25%
Visible minority 71% 54% 58%
Based on a rolling cross-section survey with 3,200 to 4,000 eligible voters.
SOURCE: THE CANADIAN ELECTION STUDY更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net