本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Campaigning in 1980, Ronald Reagan said a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours -- and a recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.
The "folk" definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by gross domestic product.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has been designated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to date business cycles uses monthly data -- and looks for diminishing, not diminished, economic activity based on four indicators: (1) personal income less transfer payments (2) employment (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors (adjusted for price changes).
The two-month "rule" was developed by Arthur Okun, an economic advisor to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, who observed the coincidence between NBER business cycle dates and negative GDP.
A recession, according to NBER, is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.” It begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.” The period between trough and peak is an expansion.
NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee views payroll employment as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. Payroll employment began to decline in January and has fallen every month this year.
The December 2007 start date means the current downturn is already longer than the prior two, each of which lasted about eight months, but still far shorter than the “Great Depression” which lasted 43 months -- from August 1929 to March 1933. The Depression was not the longest down cycle in our history. The economy contracted for 65 months from October 1873 through March 1879. Since the "Great Depression" we've had 13 downturns -- including the current -- the longest of which were 16 months, twice, November 1973 through March 1975 and July 1981 through November 1982.
President Bush is the second president since FDR to preside over more than one recession; the other was Dwight Eisenhower (he had three); the country was in recession when FDR died, emerging in October 1945, according to NBER, so Harry Truman too had two recessions, the other from November 1948 through October 1949
We've had two other 20-plus month downturns: January 1910-January 1912 (24 months) and January 1913-December 1914 (23 months).
Based on forecasts suggesting we will not see a turn-around until January 2010 the current economic decline would be the longest (25 months) since 1929-33 and the fourth longest in history after the 38-month decline from March 1882 through May 1985 -- and the contemplated response, the current situation could be classified as a depression.
There was more to the 1929-33 debacle in bank failures and foreclosures, but circumstances were different. There was, for example, no Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the typical mortgage was not -- forgetting exotic loans -- the 30-year loan that became popular after World War II. The absence of an FDIC exacerbated the 1929-33 downturn as customers rushed to banks to withdraw funds. Banks typically do not keep all deposited funds on hand – and by regulation are permitted to keep only a small percentage on hand. When banks could not meet the demand for cash, many were forced to close their doors only adding to depositor concerns about safety.
The NBER committee acknowledged “the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income.” Those data series should be same because sales of products generate income for producers and workers equal to the value of the sales. The measurements though have some statistical discrepancies and, the Committee said, “do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.”
Other measured tracked by the committee -- personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey -- “all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.”
Now that NBER has declared a “recession,” what about a “depression?”
The word "depression" is commonly reserved for relatively large falls in output and employment; "recession" is used for less severe reductions.
A depression is a situation in which output per capita is low compared to the level attainable at full capacity (a concept involving multiple measures). There is generally said to be a depression or recession when there is a significant level of idle resources, especially labor, not being used in production.
In a depression, total demand in the economy falls short of the output of which the economy is capable.
Some capacity is left unused because the factors necessary to use it are more productive elsewhere; some is unused because technological change has made it inefficient.
Actions to cure economic depression generally concentrate on increasing total demand by increasing private consumption (i.e., reducing income tax), stimulating private investment (lowering interest rates or increasing government spending without equivalent increases in taxation, deficit spending). That sounds suspiciously close to the ideas now floating through Congress to deal with the current economic crisis.
No less of a “depression” expert is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who offered a comparison in the preface to his book “Essays on the Great Depression.”
“Those who doubt that there is much connection between the economy of the 1930s and the supercharged, information-age economy of the twenty-first century are invited to look at the current economic headlines -- about high unemployment, failing banks, volatile financial markets, currency crises, and even deflation. The issues raised by the Depression, and its lessons, are still relevant today.”
Bernanke wrote those words in 2004.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
The "folk" definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by gross domestic product.
The National Bureau of Economic Research has been designated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to date business cycles uses monthly data -- and looks for diminishing, not diminished, economic activity based on four indicators: (1) personal income less transfer payments (2) employment (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors (adjusted for price changes).
The two-month "rule" was developed by Arthur Okun, an economic advisor to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, who observed the coincidence between NBER business cycle dates and negative GDP.
A recession, according to NBER, is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.” It begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.” The period between trough and peak is an expansion.
NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee views payroll employment as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. Payroll employment began to decline in January and has fallen every month this year.
The December 2007 start date means the current downturn is already longer than the prior two, each of which lasted about eight months, but still far shorter than the “Great Depression” which lasted 43 months -- from August 1929 to March 1933. The Depression was not the longest down cycle in our history. The economy contracted for 65 months from October 1873 through March 1879. Since the "Great Depression" we've had 13 downturns -- including the current -- the longest of which were 16 months, twice, November 1973 through March 1975 and July 1981 through November 1982.
President Bush is the second president since FDR to preside over more than one recession; the other was Dwight Eisenhower (he had three); the country was in recession when FDR died, emerging in October 1945, according to NBER, so Harry Truman too had two recessions, the other from November 1948 through October 1949
We've had two other 20-plus month downturns: January 1910-January 1912 (24 months) and January 1913-December 1914 (23 months).
Based on forecasts suggesting we will not see a turn-around until January 2010 the current economic decline would be the longest (25 months) since 1929-33 and the fourth longest in history after the 38-month decline from March 1882 through May 1985 -- and the contemplated response, the current situation could be classified as a depression.
There was more to the 1929-33 debacle in bank failures and foreclosures, but circumstances were different. There was, for example, no Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the typical mortgage was not -- forgetting exotic loans -- the 30-year loan that became popular after World War II. The absence of an FDIC exacerbated the 1929-33 downturn as customers rushed to banks to withdraw funds. Banks typically do not keep all deposited funds on hand – and by regulation are permitted to keep only a small percentage on hand. When banks could not meet the demand for cash, many were forced to close their doors only adding to depositor concerns about safety.
The NBER committee acknowledged “the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income.” Those data series should be same because sales of products generate income for producers and workers equal to the value of the sales. The measurements though have some statistical discrepancies and, the Committee said, “do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.”
Other measured tracked by the committee -- personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey -- “all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.”
Now that NBER has declared a “recession,” what about a “depression?”
The word "depression" is commonly reserved for relatively large falls in output and employment; "recession" is used for less severe reductions.
A depression is a situation in which output per capita is low compared to the level attainable at full capacity (a concept involving multiple measures). There is generally said to be a depression or recession when there is a significant level of idle resources, especially labor, not being used in production.
In a depression, total demand in the economy falls short of the output of which the economy is capable.
Some capacity is left unused because the factors necessary to use it are more productive elsewhere; some is unused because technological change has made it inefficient.
Actions to cure economic depression generally concentrate on increasing total demand by increasing private consumption (i.e., reducing income tax), stimulating private investment (lowering interest rates or increasing government spending without equivalent increases in taxation, deficit spending). That sounds suspiciously close to the ideas now floating through Congress to deal with the current economic crisis.
No less of a “depression” expert is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who offered a comparison in the preface to his book “Essays on the Great Depression.”
“Those who doubt that there is much connection between the economy of the 1930s and the supercharged, information-age economy of the twenty-first century are invited to look at the current economic headlines -- about high unemployment, failing banks, volatile financial markets, currency crises, and even deflation. The issues raised by the Depression, and its lessons, are still relevant today.”
Bernanke wrote those words in 2004.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net