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根据屁股原理:三年内DOW 将下4000 以下。

1。汽车生产过剩。 GM面临破产。
2。房屋生产过剩。 地产商破产。
3。钞票过剩。银行破产。基金公司面临破产。

鸡的屁 (GDP)下降,股票跟进, 屁股原理。
俺的屁放完了,舒服多了。
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  • 根据屁股原理:三年内DOW 将下4000 以下。
    1。汽车生产过剩。 GM面临破产。
    2。房屋生产过剩。 地产商破产。
    3。钞票过剩。银行破产。基金公司面临破产。

    鸡的屁 (GDP)下降,股票跟进, 屁股原理。
    俺的屁放完了,舒服多了。
    • 跌倒400点更好,哈哈。
      • 等到实现共产社会。
        • 无产阶级的领袖 OBAMA 上台, 是共产主义的希望.
          2008 资产阶级和中产阶级, 眼看自己资不抵债, 感触加入无产阶级革命队伍, 选出领袖OBAMA. 2009 无产阶级的领袖 OBAMA 上台, BOTTOM 原理是否成立, 让咱们拭目以待.
          • 从2.5 million jobs开始说起. 修建公共路桥, 公共学校, 清洁能源.
      • 从技术角度来讲,跌到4000不是没可能,,前几天我转过有人在07年作的一张图。 --> #50009@43
        • 还有技术根据. 谁是STENEN J WILLIANS. 俺想和他联系以下.
          • STENEN J WILLIANS 在这, 花农种花, 供人欣赏.
            • CYCLEPRO: "The current U.S. stock market appears to be following a similar path as was previously witnessed by U.S. investors in 1929 and 1987,
              And more recently by investors in the Japan Nikkei in 1990, Hong Kong in 1997, and many others. These were the most famous world stock market "crashes" of the century. We have already witnessed crashes in internet and high-tech industries during 2000, will this year also be added to this prestigious list for a "Crash" in the United States? Will the global economy crash too?
              • 秋吟, 4000点是inflation-adjusted DJIA, 如果不adjusted, 是多少呢?
                • 俺也想知道。从技术角度来讲DOW 已经跌到4000以下,比俺分析的快多了。
                  ``The real bottom for the current US stock bear market is not expected until August, 2017, as the following chart demonstrates with the very consistent 17.6 year cycle. This chart is also adjusted using SGS inflation data.``下面的技术图看。
                  • 俺们都是拉拉队员,股市无专家。
                    在时间上俺BOTTOM原理预测和STENEN J WILLIANS 的差不多,他是在Sunday, October 12, 2008 PM 发表的,俺是在10.15 21:42 法帖的,他是从技术角度,俺是从经济理论角度。结果几乎是完全一致。

                    那时,俺花农还在寻花问柳,没时间仔细观擦屁股扭动规律,连俺自己都不敢相信。CITI和GM的破产,证实了我们的预测。
                    I would emphasize here is that after forming a opinion with respect to a certain stock - do not be too anxious to get into it. Wait and watch the action of that stock for confirmation to long or short. Have a fundamental basis to be guided by.
            • Mark (haahtag)
    • 前两点我还能理解,第三点“钞票过剩”不太明白,要请教一下。货币金融体系是建立在morden commodity trading system上的,钞票是bank notes,记帐本而已,什么叫做过剩?我不认为那7千个亿的多余印刷出来,是国库里本来就有的,有黄金做后盾的。
      • 行业倒闭,是生产过剩的结果。
        钞票过剩。银行破产。
      • 美国的钞票太多,打仗没用完,该买的都塞满车库和储藏室,俺家也一样。
        谁家的车库用来停车?举手。
        • " 钞票过剩" : 话说2005年, CITI 银行的赢利出乎意料, 资产阶级和中产阶级的信誉CREDIT 已经用完, CITI 把目光转移到从来没借过钱的无产阶级身上. 钱闲在保险柜, 还要雇佣保安, 不如放高利贷给这些无产者. 2006年, SUBPRIME利红得发紫. 金融界蜂拥而来.
          从其他国家筹划更多大资金, 准备推波助澜, 达到金融海啸的高潮. 2007 年无产阶级继承革命传统, 要钱没有, 要财产拿回去. 2008 年资产阶级和中产阶级眼看自己的财产缩水, 就加入无产阶级革命队伍, 选出领袖OBAMA. 2009 无产阶级的领袖 OBAMA 上台, BOTTOM 原理是否成立, 让咱们拭目以待.
      • "she hasn't bought much for herself in the past couple weeks -- and not because she can't afford it. maybe it's that I don't really need anything." wsj.com
        本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛After years of conspicuous consumption, many middle- and upper-income Americans are morphing into cautious shoppers. The change in mood could have a dramatic effect on consumer spending on everything from cars and travel to electronics, fashion and jewelry, especially heading toward the holiday season. That's a radical change from the 2001 economic slowdown when many people shopped to feel better.

        In Chicago, Fanchon Simons, an avid 60-year-old shopper, says she couldn't bring herself to buy a $360 blouse that she tried on at a designer-clothing boutique last week. Ms. Simons says she hasn't bought much for herself in the past couple weeks -- and not because she can't afford it. Buying "is not that important to me right now because of the climate," she says. "Maybe it's a way to be in sympathy with the rest of the people...or maybe it's that I don't really need anything."

        High-end consumers aren't the only ones pinching pennies or turning to window-shopping. Synetha Chambers, a 31-year-old single parent from Cedar Hill, Texas, who makes $25 an hour as a service representative for AT&T, says she has pared her grocery list to the necessities -- milk is a must, but she no longer buys soda and chips. "And I will be honest with you, Christmas is no longer a necessity in my household," Ms. Chambers says.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • "货币金融体系是建立在morden commodity trading system" is from book
    • 又想放屁了。
      Goods shipped by truck, train and ship have all fallen off in volume, and freight companies are now forecasting a slump as the credit crisis slows manufacturing and puts the brakes on consumer spending. Shipping companies are considered a barometer of economic health, which makes the current downturn particularly worrisome. The autumn months ordinarily bring a surge in preholiday shipping.
    • 钞票过剩,套用你得罗季,应该是发行美元的机构倒闭,而不试银行。
      • 没倒闭。发行美元的机构是美国政府:资本主义的大本营。正处于社会主义过渡阶段 (#4750113@0) 。
      • US Stocks up on US GDP down。 屁股变股屁?
        • 每次蚯蚓一冒头,大盘好象就南下,呵呵
          • 跟着屁股扭动。LET US DANCE。
    • Fisher’s theory 是俺的理论根据。 
      “A deadly mix of falling prices and high leverage could foment a “debt-deflation” of the type first described by Irving Fisher, an American economist, in 1933. In this schema, debt-laden firms and consumers rush to repay loans as credit dries up. That hurts demand and leads to price cuts. The deflation in turn increases the real cost of debt. It also means that real interest rates can’t be negative, and so are undesirably high. That spurs yet more repayment so that, in Fisher’s words, the “liquidation defeats itself.”

      Fisher’s theory is of more than just academic interest. Recent lending surveys by the Federal Reserve and the ECB showed a larger share of banks tightened their lending criteria in October than in July. Such is the concern in America that on November 12th regulators said they would scrutinise the dividend policies of banks that did not increase lending.”
      • 俺等着免费股票。
        等OBAMA 就职后,实现 Audacity of Hope 社会, 咱们都分点股票不就成免费的股东了吗?第一个条件:先成员工,再成股东。就是先制造就业机会,然后把股份分给员工。
        • 俺是认真的。 不信,给你个连接。
          • 不好意思。是这个。政治经济密切联系。
            • Are rich economies heading merely for a bout of falling prices, or for a 1930s-style deflationary spiral?
    • 符合bottom 原理。
      • 444.99 不吉利。
    • o 曾是美国最大的银行CITI 面临被收购的局面: Citigroup may look for a possible merger partner or take other steps to raise cash, senior officials told CNBC. 符合“BOTTOM” 原理。
      • BOTTOM = 屁股。
        • another bottom >>>>>>
          • bottom=屁股=半山腰,怪不得抄底的都是抄到半山腰
            • 花农在半山腰种花。
    • 一句屁话,有人还当真。宋鸿兵:2009年春夏金融海啸第二波更猛烈(图)
      • 不用他预言,俺年初就说了明年上半年也好不了,现在经济危机才刚开始呢——危机向纵深发展。
        • 好,太好了.
    • 蚯蚓花农知多少,BOTTOM何时了? 〉〉〉〉〉〉〉〉
    • 温故知新:“When the Dow finally stopped going down, in July 1932, it had lost 88% in 36 months. ”
      "When it comes to worst-case scenarios, 1931-1932 is it. When the Dow finally stopped going down, in July 1932, it had lost 88% in 36 months. At that point, only five of the roughly 800 companies that still survived on the New York Stock Exchange had lost less than two-thirds of their value from their peak in 1929." wsj.com
    • 美国零售业关张一览表 2008 10月 至2009
    • 俺又不舒服了。 (#5592061@0) ( #5592076@0)